Annual loco sales?

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Post by Busted Bricks » Tue Apr 12, 2016 10:28 am

There isn't much of a threat from China at present as they don't produce and sell any locos directly. I know that Accucraft locos are built in China but price wise they don't seem to be far off Roundhouse prices.

With regards to parts, I have found a supplier in Denmark that can make CNC turned parts at prices very close to China prices since I save on shipping and duty. Also laser cutting is very affordable in Europe these days. Material prices are pretty much the same the world over.

I don't have any cost for rent, there are no rates to pay and I don't employ any staff so my own overhead is quite low. As long as I can meet the local minimum wage for my own time I'm happy (app. £13 per hour)

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Post by KNO3 » Wed Apr 13, 2016 9:51 pm

It's hard to evaluate the model steam loco market, but if it's of any use, here are the kinds of locos that would appeal to me and perhaps others:

Route 1
A small loco that can run on widely available track like H0 with 16,5 mm. H0 has the widest market share, world-wide.
I doubt there is much competition in that area from other live steam manufacturers. The advantage would be a large existing pool of potential buyers who run H0 trains.
Also, many people refrain from getting locos that run on 32 or 45 mm because they feel they are too big for their small apartments etc., but they might be interested in a live steam loco that can run on their indoor H0 circuit.

Route 2
A nice loco regaugeable between 32 and 45 mm, with full control (speed and reversing). That usually implies 2 cylinders. I would think this loco should be offered ready to run and in kit form. If you only offer a kit, it would discourage many who aren't sure of their abilities to build it.
I would make it internally fired, with either gas or alcohol, whatever would be cheaper to manufacture.
As you know, for these gauges there is an established competition.
I wouldn't go for a single cylinder locomotive, since it's not so easy to control, which might put off some.

Considerations regarding both routes mentioned above:
Most important, make the loco detailed enough to look like a plausible real life loco, but it doesn't have to be a copy of any prototype. Which means it should have nicely designed parts: avoid the look of large lumps of crudely machined metal (as seen on some toy steam cylinders).
Try to make it upgradeable with parts form other suppliers. Which means choosing the most widely used threads for boiler bushes, for instance.
Look into having parts manufactured overseas if that works out cheaper.
And don't forget advertising, even if you choose free means such as youtube videos, forum postings, facebook page, etc.

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Post by Joe » Thu Apr 14, 2016 4:26 pm

Hi, i think for the UK 2 foot gauge prototype market (which i expect is the largest in 16mm) a craker loco could be quite appealing for small industrial lines although i do doubt whether you will be able to sell 50 of them a year. If i were starting out making a live steam loco then i would personally look at producing a small slip eccentric loco perhaps like a Wild rose of Dave Watkins drawings. if you aimed to make 25 RTR then 25 in kit form (which perhaps dont require to much engineering skills but are also more difficult than roundhouses) then i reckon you would be on to a winner. Both forms either a RTR small slip eccentric loco or for a reasonable price of (around £400-£500) or a kit of one for about (£340-£400) are two areas of the 16mm market not currently catered very well for. This is especially true when you look at roundhouse and there latest offerings both of which are high end and not accessible to many modelers and especially beginners into the hobby. As for Accucraft despite there lower prices many people even begginers into the hobby arent comfortable with getting a loco from China.
anyway whatever way you go Good luck! :)
cheers
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Post by -steves- » Thu Apr 14, 2016 5:07 pm

Hi well I think the above post is potentially flawed in a few palces, in my opinion of course, as we are all entitled to those as per above.

I think 45mm is more popular as many people come from Gauge 1 so already have the track so dont change it. Others model 2'6 and 3' which is a closer representation then 32mm.

Slip eccentric might be cheaper, but it is just that, cheaper and not much fun for anyone that wants or needs RC on their line due to steeper inclines as you have to push it for reverse, kinda defeats the object of RC.

As for Accucraft, myself and many others who I know and speak to on here don't mind buying Accucraft as a first loco, in fact I did just that. I think they are excellent feats of engineering and highly recommend them along with Roundhouse.

So as you can see, there are always 2 sides to every coin!
The buck stops here .......

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Post by Busted Bricks » Thu Apr 14, 2016 5:29 pm

There is a whole world outside of UK and in most other countries 45mm is the track of choice.

A geared oscillator is quite docile and will run without R/C on less than perfect tracks.

Further down the line (no pun intended) I could be interested in manufacturing a loco like Wild Rose but that would require the permission of the designer. In case of the Cracker I have that permission. However I am moving away from the original design by enlarging it.

I'm currently working on drawing generic parts such as unions, valves etc. with the aim to have them made on CNC machines.

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Post by -steves- » Fri Apr 15, 2016 7:41 am

Looking forward to seeing one of these being built up :D
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Post by rebelego » Fri Apr 15, 2016 7:50 am

Busted Bricks:117433 wrote:I don't have any cost for rent, there are no rates to pay and I don't employ any staff so my own overhead is quite low. As long as I can meet the local minimum wage for my own time I'm happy (app. £13 per hour)
I think the main thing you should think through is whether you want to do it as a hobby for fun or if your motivation is to make money. If you consider dealing with customers and subcontractors, doing accounting and all the other aspects of running your own business as hobby and fun, why not just go ahead and do it. You will certainly learn a lot. Good luck!

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Post by Busted Bricks » Fri Apr 15, 2016 9:00 am

I have been running my own businesses on and off for many years, sometimes full-time, sometimes part-time. I really enjoy being self-employed. Admittedly I'm not fond of doing the book keeping but at least I know how to do it. I'm used to dealing with vendors and customers on a daily basis in my day job.

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Post by stoker » Fri Apr 15, 2016 10:44 am

As a beginner in garden railways,perhaps my viewpoint will be of interest.

I would love live steam,but the price is off putting.

I consider myself to be a reasonable DIY person,I avoid taking any of my cars to a garage as far as possible and I have almost finished re-building our retirement home....there's really just the garden left....

So a cheap to buy kit steam loco,with the tricky bits pre-assembled,would be of great interest to guys like me.
Email back-up from the supplier would be a big advantage for any problem solving parts of construction.

Gauge?
I cannot decide between 32 and 45mm,so a kit that could be built for both will make sure of sales to both followers.

I wish the OP well in his venture and look forward to seeing his results.
youth is wasted on the young...

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Post by Crayfish » Fri Apr 15, 2016 10:45 am

I might consider a cracker if it were in the guise of a steam tram (Wisbech and Upwell style) but the bare engine designs I've seen look too toy like for my tastes.

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Post by mikewakefielduk@btinterne » Fri Apr 15, 2016 11:05 am

At the moment the garden rail loco market seems to be changing, which means you may be entering it at just the right time.

The major manufacturers appear to be aiming more and more at the expensive end of the market. As has been said elsewhere, its been a while since either Regner, Accucraft or Roundhouse produced a new live steam loco design in the lower price bracket (i.e up to around £600 - £700). Just look at  the recently announced Roundhouse Darleeling battery loco that costs nearly £1000 for a manual version (and has sold well I understand).

Mamod of course continue to do well with their Mk111 oscillator at just over £300 new but their piston valve locos are over £400 and their internally gas fired loco under development is sure to be over £500.

It looks like the market for live steam locos at the cheaper end is likely to be pretty good currently, so if you can produce something that is well made, detailed, unusual enough to be different but not quirky and at the "right" price you could do well.
Last edited by mikewakefielduk@btinterne on Sun Apr 17, 2016 10:08 am, edited 3 times in total.

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Post by Busted Bricks » Fri Apr 15, 2016 11:24 am

Achieving a "one size fits all" if impossible but I am aiming to provide a loco that has some flexibility. I will be dual gauge and will likely be available fully RTR or unpainted without cab. The latter should appeal to those who might want to try their hand at bodywork. The design lends itself well to a number of styles. Of course a tram body could also be fitted.

It certainly won't appeal to any die-hard scale fans but then that is not my target market. It's an affordable, cheerful little loco that you let the children/grandchildren loose on (with suitable supervision of course).

I'm working towards a target price below £300 quid and at the moment that looks realistic. If you look at what I did with the Busted Bricks kit range you will know that my focus is on entry level, affordable products without resorting to shabby quality.

In terms of timescale it all depends on how long my current contract keeps being extended for. Currently it runs until end of June.

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Post by sstjc » Fri Apr 15, 2016 1:26 pm

If thats the design brief then I will certainly be interested funds permitting !
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Post by GardenRail » Sun Apr 17, 2016 8:23 am

cncmodeller:117363 wrote:15 a year sounds very low doesn't it? But I promise you the market is more lack lustre than the blurb in magazines would have you believe.
Your problem is that a lot of people are not builders and want ready made and the market is incredibly small. Here's a general selling rule of thumb:- one half of one per cent I.e what is it now? 4000 16mm association members? That then equates to 20 possible sales? Look at Accucrafts net worth, the info is available on the internet, the numbers are very modest. Also railway enthusiasts have a particular interest to them so that cuts down the sales. I know what you're thinking 'if I can earn 2k a month from home with only 50 sales a year it will work out"
You won't be the first to try it!
The moot point here is the number of people prepared to build or modify. The 16mm Association did pretty well out of their kit – although I have not seen that many completed as yet. DJB have taken orders for their limited edition batch of gas fired 'Robert' kit loco - and this is the best part of 1500 squid (they could easily sell more but this is the last batch of Hackworth valve gear). It all depends on the loco of course. Roundhouse have sold over 200 of their £3,500 Garratt. As to gauge then there is no doubt that you would have to be looking at outside framed 're-gaugable models to pick up on both gauges. any NG live steam loco limited to 45mm would largely bomb.
Either way, i rather think you would sell significantly more than 10 to 15 IF this is a running locomotive with just bodywork to add. Perhaps this could later be supplied as a separate kit - thereby picking up on those who are afraid of any sort of scratch construction. Few people in the narrow gauges limit themselves to particular prototypes, particularly in the below 1300 sovs bracket. £250 is VERY cheap - even Mamod's next loco is aiming at a target price of £600 - so certainly if it works and can pull a reasonable train there are many people who would be interested.. Promote initially through the free trade news sections of GardenRail and SMT - but do set up a Facebook page - this is an effective way to promote in this market.. There are several busy groups based on garden railways and usage appears to be increasing while forums and e groups are not.
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Post by MDLR » Sun Apr 17, 2016 6:01 pm

GardenRail:117569 wrote:The moot point here is the number of people prepared to build or modify. The 16mm Association did pretty well out of their kit – although I have not seen that many completed as yet.
This is not strictly true. The Association did Victory as a "no profit" exercise - the small surplus which has accrued is to be donated to charities connected to Keith Dyer, who designed it.
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Post by GardenRail » Sun Apr 17, 2016 6:12 pm

MDLR:117578 wrote:
GardenRail:117569 wrote:The moot point here is the number of people prepared to build or modify. The 16mm Association did pretty well out of their kit – although I have not seen that many completed as yet.
This is not strictly true. The Association did Victory as a "no profit" exercise - the small surplus which has accrued is to be donated to charities connected to Keith Dyer, who designed it.
Yes - poor choice of words Brian. I meant in terms of number produced...
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Post by Busted Bricks » Sun Apr 17, 2016 6:41 pm

How many Victory kits were produced?

Some progress has been made. I have now sourced suppliers for gears, CNC turned parts such as wheels and someone to do the laser cutting. I have some numbers to crunch before I decide how much to invest. My current contract pays well so I can afford to invest with falling into debt. I'm playing the long game here. Some parts will have to be made in quantity but they are generic so can be used in future designs as well as being sold on their own to loco builders. I already have all I need in terms of machines and tooling except for the odd drill or tap.

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Post by cncmodeller » Sun Apr 17, 2016 8:21 pm

Being a professional modelmaker now since 1988 I have a bit of experience about making money from models,We always reckon on average that the material costs alone of any model ( whatever it is ) should be about 10% without labour so a £300 quid engine should be about £30. Its always very seductive to assume that you can sub out all your CNC and get it back and bolt it together.
I'm at the moment building a Keith Bucklitch Brazil class loco and I have 3x 3D CNC machines to help me, but the reality of setting them up for each part is considerable I can assure you and I'm only doing one for myself! As I mentioned in an earlier post its ok for Roundhouse and Accucraft to get and make large orders but they have a constant stream of mentions in the model railway press, as a one man band you might get a mention once in the magazines but what happens the month after?this could be a problem as I've also noticed that garden railway modellers are not so forward in championing new products on the net as their plastic kit modeller counterparts.
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Post by Busted Bricks » Sun Apr 17, 2016 8:53 pm

I don't plan to sub out all parts. Currently only considering unions, boiler bushes, wheels and gears. Plus laser cutting of steel parts of course. Laser cutting is a small outlay as prices are good from qty as low as 25 sets. My aim is to build an initial batch of 25 locos and take it from there.

This is something I have wanted to try for a long time and I am now in a position where I have enough money to get started. It's only about 2 weeks pay I'm putting into this. If it doesn't work out it is not a big deal.

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Post by rebelego » Mon Apr 18, 2016 7:12 am

Busted Bricks:117581 wrote:How many Victory kits were produced?
200 I think. (?) At NGRS 2014 it was possible to sign up for a new batch of Victory kits, but the interest turned out to be too low.

Have you considered running your Cracker project as a kickstarter project? Or setting up your own website taking preorders and/or uncommitted interests?

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